Nationals walked-off with best reliever in the bullpen

Watching your team get walked off is frustrating.  Watching your team get walked off with their best reliever still sitting in the bullpen is infuriating.  And here we are…

It has always baffled me that managers would save their closer for later in the game when they have their hypothetical lead, as if a tie game in the bottom of the 9th inning is not a critical situation.  Besides, I’d rather have my best guy pitching in the tie game with no margin for error and save a less good pitcher to pitch with a lead.  Let’s not over-complicate this; here are the pitchers in the Nationals’ bullpen and their 2015 xFIPs:

Pitcher	xFIP
Felipe Rivero	2.05
Aaron Barrett	2.18
Drew Storen	2.87
Blake Treinen	2.87
Matt Thornton	3.12
Casey Jannsen	3.74
Tanner Roark	3.79

The pitchers crossed out are the ones who already pitched this game.

The choice seems pretty obvious to me.  Heck, I even suggested bringing in Storen in the 8th inning to face the Orioles 2-3-4 hitters.  In case you’re worried about usage, the Nationals just had two days off, and three-day All Star Break begins on Monday.  No concerns there.

Perhaps the Nationals wouldn’t have even been in this situation if Matt Williams hadn’t turned Matt Wieters around to bat right-handed in the 8th inning.  Wieters has a career 119 wRC+ against lefties versus just a 90 wRC+ against righties.

I guess we’ll never know, just like we’ll never know what would have happened in the imaginary 13th inning Williams was counting on to bring in Storen with the Nationals leading.

Random Tidbits

A few random thoughts floating around my head after last night’s thrilling walk-off win to salvage a Double Header split against the Mets and the news that Drew Storen had been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse:

• The role of “closer” is an extreme paradox, isn’t it?  Most teams anoint the best relief pitcher on their team to be the “closer” and then pitch him in less useful situations than if he was a “set up man.”  The sooner “saves” and “blown saves” are not counted, the better off baseball will be.
• Related to that, I was trying to find a way to defend Storen and suggest that the Nationals made a mistake in sending him down.  For the life of me, I can’t.  He’s been really bad this year.  He had a good stretch in June, where he gave up a run in only two appearances.  Alas, relievers have tough jobs; they usually have one inning to prove themselves and are expected to perform flawlessly every time they are handed the ball.  This is especially true if you are a “set up man,” where the stakes are much higher, the score is usually closer, and, often times, the other team’s best hitters are due to hit.
• Relievers are hard to predict from year to year.  BABIP fluctuates greatly in small samples (which relievers’ samples usually are) and does not stabilize until a pitcher has faced a large number of hitters.  Aside from BABIP, things like HR/FB rates, GB rates – really, anything that has to do with batted balls – as well as walk rates and strike out rates can very greatly from year to year for a reliever.  It is hard to be consistent when you cannot create a rhythm.  Relievers don’t necessarily get to pitch every day, and if they get hit hard one day, it might be a while until they get a chance to make it up.
• Lastly regarding relievers, Tyler Clippard is quietly having a very strong year.  Perhaps overshadowed by the Nationals’ generally terrible performance this season, or possibly obscured by Storen’s struggles and Rafael Soriano’s nerve-wracking appearances, Clippard leads the Nationals with 20 shut downs versus only 4 melt downs (the best ratio in the Nationals’ bullpen).
• On the offensive side of things, can anyone give me one good reason why Jayson Werth is not leading off for the Nationals?  He has power?  Great; a leadoff home run increases your chances of winning by 10%!  He won’t have a chance to drive in runs?  Pleeeeeease, it’s not like anyone is on base when he’s batting fifth.  He gets on base, he has great at bats, he is a very smart baseball player, and he has power.  He’s essentially a perfect leadoff hitter.
• For what it’s worth, I would run out a batting order like this:

Jayson Werth, RF

Bryce Harper, LF

Ian Desmond, SS

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B

Adam LaRoche, 1B

Anthony Rendon, 2B

Denard Span, CF

Wilson Ramos,C

Pitcher

• Finally, as the trade deadline approaches, I implore Mike Rizzo to try and unload some of the superfluous and overprice assets on the team.  And by that, I mean anyone who is not part of the “core,” per se.  Soriano, LaRoche, Span, Suzuki:  good bye.

The Anatomy of a Good ERA

It has been pretty well documented that ERA is largely out of the control of pitchers; in fact, it might be determined less by the pitcher and more by his surrounding environment. I can’t say that with 100% certainty, but I would not be at all surprised.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the factors that contribute to a pitcher having a low ERA compared with those of a pitcher with an uncharacteristically high ERA. The Nationals’ de facto ace in 2013 has so far been Jordan Zimmermann, who currently sports a 1.64 ERA backed by a 2.92 FIP. Our old buddy, Edwin Jackson, who signed a lucrative 4-year, $52 million contract with the Cubs last offseason, has a 3.23 FIP and a 6.39 ERA. Both pitchers seem to be pitching fairly effectively – why is Zimmermann’s ERA so much lower than Jackson’s?

Balls in Play
Zimmermann’s BABIP is .188; Jackson’s is .353. That is the equivalent 17 fewer hits against Zimmermann on 100 balls in play.  Behold the following chart, which shows BABIP for each batted ball type for each pitcher as well as the Major League average:

Player	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Line Drives
J Zimmermann	.108	.073	.737
E Jackson	.203	.125	.926
MLB Avg	.235	.108	.680

Zimmermann is lower than Jackson across the board and lower than average in all but line drives.  It’s not very surprising when you consider that the Cubs are not a great defensive team; the Nationals are much better defensively.

Take a look at the line drives.  Through 6 games, Zimmermann has given up 19 line drives, of which 12 were singles and 2 were doubles.  Jackson has given up 27 line drives, of which 7 were doubles, 1 was a triple, and 17 were singles.  That’s a slash line of .926/.926/1.259 – or an OPS+ of 161 – against Jackson on line drives.  For whatever reason, Jackson has been hit very hard on line drives while Zimmermann has not.

Perhaps Zimmermann, who is known for his command, is able to induce weaker contact than Jackson.  Jackson walks more batters and generally has worse command than Zimmermann, which could make him more prone to mistakes.

Location, Location, Location

Check out these Heat Maps, courtesy of FanGraphs:

Zimmermann Heat Map vs. Righties

Jackson Heat Map vs. Righties

I clumped all of the pitches together.  Still, you can see that Jackson’s most concentrated area is dead, red, down the middle of the plate.  Zimmermann’s pitches, meanwhile, are more spread out; his most concentrated areas are not as dark as Jackson’s.  And they aren’t as close to the middle of the plate.  Furthermore – and I won’t distract you with more pictures – Zimmermann’s fastball has more natural movement in on righties and has averaged a mile per hour faster.  Throwing harder with more movement in better spots makes it more challenging for a batter to square up on a pitch.

Sheer, Dumb Luck

Zimmermann has stranded 83.3 % of baserunners in 2013; Jackson has stranded 52.3 %.  It’s hard to explain this with certainty, aside from Zimmermann walking one-third as many batters as Jackson, so maybe Zimmermann has just been luckier than Jackson.  Maybe the crazy Chicago wind has hurt Jackson, causing what would normally be an easy out to fall in for a hit (and inflate his BABIP at home to .470).

I think it’s pretty clear that Zimmermann is a better pitcher than Jackson, which plays a significant role in why he has a much lower ERA.  But even the best pitchers couldn’t maintain a lower ERA with no defenders.  And sometimes, the ball just does crazy things.

Baseball’s All Defensive Team

Defense doesn’t get the recognition it deserves.  Sure, there are ESPN’s Web Gems and defensive highlights on MLB Network, but All Stars are still voted solely on offense.  Last year’s AL MVP won in spite of his miserable defense (and a more deserving candidate).  So, I decided to give the best defenders in baseball some recognition.  I went about creating the best defensive team in baseball, based on Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) over the past 3 years.  The results:

Player	Pos	DRS	UZR
STARTING 9
Mark Buehrle	P	33	—
Yadier Molina	C	32	—
Adrian Gonzalez	1B	24	29.4
Dustin Pedroia	2B	38	34.2
Brendan Ryan	SS	68	36.8
Evan Longoria	3B	48	31.3
Brett Gardner	LF	62	55.2
Michael Bourn	CF	53	39.1
Jason Heyward	RF	50	38.9
BENCH
Matt Wieters	C	30	—
Adrian Beltre	3B	44	31.4
Alexei Ramirez	SS	42	30.1
Gerardo Parra	OF	42	38.9
Chris Young	OF	42	29
ROTATION
Jake Westbrook	RHP	32	—
RA Dickey	RHP	25	—
Ricky Romero	LHP	21	—
Zack Greinke	RHP	19	—
BULLPEN
Jason Motte	CP	6	—
Joe Smith	RHP	6	—
Brad Ziegler	RHP	8	—
Luke Gregerson	RHP	6	—
Wilton Lopez	RHP	6	—
Brad Bergesen	RHP<x/td>	6	—
Javier Lopez	LHP	5	—

Phew.  That’s a full 25-man roster.  And the first thing I notice is that these guys can hit.  Of course, this wouldn’t be my blog if it wasn’t educational in some way.  DRS and UZR are both counting stats – the more a players plays and plays well, the more runs saved a player accumulates.  The people on this team play a lot – like, everyday.  Their positive defensive contributions are a by-product of their offensive contributions.  The exception, of course, being Brendan Ryan, who can’t even reach the Mendoza Line.

Just for fun, let’s make a lineup for this team:

1. Michael Bourn CF
2. Dustin Pedroia 2B
3. Jason Heyward RF
4. Evan Longoria 3B
5. Adrian Gonzalez 1B
6. Yadier Molina C
7. Brett Gardner LF
8. Brendan Ryan SS
9. Mark Buehrle P

For our much revered manager, we get the left-right pattern throughout the entire lineup.

Hey, I think this team would win a whole bunch of games.

Nats add lefty Romero

Source: NYDailyNews.com

Per MLBTradeRumors.

This could be a non-issue.  Romero is 36 years old and can barely reach 90 mph with his fastball anymore.  However, he’s left-handed, something the Nationals don’t have much of in their bullpen.  And apparently he looked pretty good during the World Baseball Classic.

The Nationals’ bullpen is capable of getting left-handed batters out, but they don’t have any one guy who is a true LOOGY (lefty one out guy).  I don’t anticipate that Davey will be all to pleased having to use Tyler Clippard or Ryan Mattheus for a third of an inning.  And, of course, there are really no defensive liabilities on the field whom Davey could take out in a double switch.  Having a guy like Romero could make managing the bullpen easier for Davey.

As I see it, the only remaining roster spot is between Henry Rodriguez and Romero.  I think Henry has the leg up because he is out of options and supposedly has learned to take something off his fastball in order for him to get it over the plate every once in a while.  Alas, if someone gets injured or if the bullpen just isn’t getting lefties out as well as everyone thinks it should, Romero could see some time with the Nationals this year.

Update 12:57 PM: So, I guess Mike Rizzo made it pretty clear that Romero will not make the Opening Day roster. To me, that makes it pretty clear that Henry Rodriguez will be the 7tj man in the bullpen. Perhaps Romero could channel his inner Mike Gonzalez and provide some value for the Nationals later in the year.